Recession still unlikely.
The probability we were in a recession in July was 1.96% (out of 100).
This model uses the major coincident economic indicators to determine the probability we are in a recession. Historically the model signals an active recession when this probability is above 80% for 3 straight months.
We are well below that trigger and have been well below since early 2020. Another indication we aren't in a recession.
It is a smoothed model, so the most recent monthly point estimates are the most incomplete and noisy and will be revised. Previous months' probabilities are refined as more economic information becomes available.
"Great info! 🤓 Thanks for sharing this economic insight! 😊 It's always interesting to see how things are looking from a data-driven perspective. 💡 The fact that we're well below that 80% trigger is definitely reassuring! 🙌 Would love to hear more about the model and its methodology - what do you think sparked your interest in economics? 💬 And hey, if you haven't already, be sure to check out xpilar.witness by voting here: https://steemitwallet.com/~witnesses (we appreciate your support!) 👍"