Sort:  

Nothing set in stone in the markets. This weekly target is valid for the next 12 weeks. The 34 weeks WMA provides a very strong support. (currently @ $8862). The only time BTC penetrated below it was back in 2013.

It must be some very negative black swan event for BTC to break below it at once. Otherwise I expect the market to bounce around it for quite some time.

Just a minor note: At least on charts based on Bitfinex data, we were below the 34W WMA in much of 2014-2015, following the end of 2013 peak and subsequent crash. But since Oct 2015, we have been consistently above the 34W WMA.

Many thanks for the posts!

That's another story. Breaking below takes time and effort. Staying below is nothing extraordinary.