Bitcoin price, based on the famous "S" curve theory. The move to $100'000 is much faster than you think.

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

New technologies from the light-bulb to the radio, to the TV, to computers, to the internet, to the smart phone , and so on tend to go through various phases.

The main phases identified are:

Phases

Innovators and inventors phase
Early adopters phase
Early majority phase
Late majority phase
Mass adoption phase
Laggards phase

The meaning of the above phases should be obvious. Where do you think we are on the bitcoin phase?

The "S" curve

The rate of adoption of the technology is described by something known as the "S" curve. You can google it for more information.

After the initial invention, early adoption is slow, but then it starts to speed up as the early and late majority start to use the technology. Finally the pace of growth slows as the technology gets mass adoption and finally it stablilises when the laggards come in.

Magic word

If you have read this post this far, please include the magic word "hodl" in your comment and I will be sure to upvote you.

Below you can see my interpretation of bitcoin adoption rates, plotted against the projected bitcoin price using "S" curve methodology.
Screen Shot 2017-11-03 at 14.56.19.png

Below is the same chart but annotated with key price points you should look out for. It shows you the dates - according to the expected adoption rates when the price of bitcoin should hit the key mile-stones of $100, $1000, $10'000, $100'000 and 1 million. Accroding to the slope of the "S" curve, it should be very fast to move from $1'000 to $10'000, and from $10'000 to $100'000. However the move from $100'000 to $1 million should take much longer.

If you would like to see some real life examples of the "S" curve inaction on the prices of other securities, look at the 30 year charts of Apple or Microsoft using a log scale.

Screen Shot 2017-11-03 at 13.16.51.jpg

Lastly, below is a little table I produced last night to help you work out when you might become a bitcoin millionaire. It does not use the same more sophisticated "S" curve maths used in the charts above, but rather instead assumes that the price growth rate seen so far in 2017 continues for a number of years. As can be seen in the "S" curve graph above, it won't be straight line growth, so the longer dated price projections are unlikely to be achieved unless the US Dollar fails.

image.png

Disclaimer -The above is not investment advice

Whilst the charts above have been constructed using mathematical principals, the mathematics require the use of a number of variables which have to be estimated based on present or past trends. These variables may change, or the assumptions made may turn out to be wrong. As can be seen, the bitcoin price did not always track the price projection curve, and it may not do so in the future. Therefore please treat this research as being for fun only.

It is not financial advice. The future growth rate may be different from that derived by looking at the past. In fact lots of things could even cause the price of bitcoin to fall to, or near to, zero, or there may be no market at all.

Bitcoin is, after all, nothing but a series of digits in the ether that you can't eat or even use for firewood.

Don't invest more money than you would be willing to completely lose.

If contemplating an investment in bitcoin, imagine you are betting on a three-legged donkey, or a fat greyhound. How much would you risk?

Will your friends laugh at you if you buy bitcoin and then the price falls sharply. Will they say "You're a foll. I told you so".? Can you take that kind of ridicule? If not, tell nobody.

Will your spouse divorce you and the kids hate you if the price plunges 50% tomorrow? If the answer is "Yes", then bitcoin is not for you.

It has taken me a great deal of time and work to gather the information and to do the research to put this post together. I really hope that you l like it!

Seriously - this was days of research and hard work! I really hope that you like the effort I made to bring this to the Steemit community.

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This was great work, thank you! I've backtested your curve to the recent swings we've seen in the market and it still holds true. impressive. #HODL

I love the S curve and the magic word hodl :) I like your good analysis.
The first chart shows that we are already in the early majority phase. In October 2018, 50% of the people will use crypto? Possible.

The more people that do hodl the faster the whole thing rises. It is a bit of an interesting self-fulfilling prophecy. I am working on acquiring some more now because I will be honest, I am not sure I would have the stomach to hodl all my bitcoin at price levels of 100k or 500k.

If the market were to experience a major correction in the near future I would definitely load up.

The "S" curve, the tool that helps us explain the deeper hodl (s) around tech innovations, which only hodlers like @swissclive understands.
I like your effort, the hard work put in this research is paying off.
Keeping it coming , don't stop burning those candles that are bringing this kind of result to steemians.

Really appreciating the unique analysis and documentation here versus moon memes and unsubstantiated thoughts.

I may be mistaken, but you may have a typo in your S curve chart. The date of Oct 3 should be Nov 3, right?

@steemat. Very good spot! I will correct that.... Thanks for the support!

No prob! With the finder's reward you generously shared, you may have found yourself a full-time editor!! haha

Now the chart is corrected to reflect the all time high was yesterday. (All time high yet-again Why does this keep happening?)

Hah. You might as well just code in a dynamic calendar ticker that feeds off of anything but Kraken. Knock on wood.

Thanks for posting. Im not totally convinced by your application of s wave theory to future bit coin prices, especially on your time scales and without adding many many variables into the calculation, but fair play on the work put into the article. An excellent read and very well written.
Every success and best wishes to you and lets hope hod1, or even hodl, makes you a fortune :-)

I’m not convinced either. It’s a scenario based on certain assumptions and mathematical theory which involves variables which are different for every piece of new tech.

G'day. Good job on this analysis and I agree completely.
S curve / J curve / Bell curve - they all point to one thing - Bitcoin heading North.
Accumulate and Hodl and Prosper!!!!

While I keep searching for that magic unicorn hidden between the ALTS you found it in HODL BTC ;) Nice work and thanks for sharing this analyse with the community.

Chart is way to short in time for S curve adoption of new Internet currency. I upvoted you though. Just saying that its very unlikely in 2020 more than 50% of people would have any Bitcoin. Many issues remain to be solved in Bitcoin. It takes a lot of assumptions right now to get BTC price to $1 million per coin. I believe its going to take 30 years to get full adoption of crypto but the growth will be far beyond most can ever imagine now in trillions and trillions of USD value. While its still not clear Bitcoin will be the #1 coin in 10 years its very clear that crypto currencies are going to be wildly popular. Much more than people think today.

Thank you @hedge-x. That was a good contribution to the discussion.

Although there is a “fun” element and a lot of assumption I made, it does not take away the fact that we are still at an early stage. Will it make a million? I doubt it but then five years ago people doubted it would ever reach $1’000 then later $10’000. At the moment the direction in adoption is heavily positive, like email in 1994. The maths is telling that the unlikely is probable. Hodl away.....

I kick myself on the regular for not mining as many BTC as I could back in the day. The sad thing is I even knew about it and tried it out. I think I mined approximately 15 BTC before I said to myself: "This pretend internet money is stupid."

I naturally never backed anything up since I thought it was worthless, and so those coins are lost to the ages. I won't be making that mistake again!

So the next time a new currency is invented that will replace the world’s money, get mining fast! Personally I think gold and gold mining could be in with a chance.